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Paper short abstract

This paper examines how synthetic data and AI shape future oriented knowledge in humanitarian crisis forecasting. It shows how models fill data gaps to support proactive decisions while raising political, ontological and epistemological questions about how plausible futures are made present.

Paper long abstract

Two actual developments can be observed in the production of knowledge: First, knowledge is becoming increasingly datafied and algorithmised. Second, more knowledge is being collected in an anticipatory or predictive manner about previously unencountered situations. This knowledge may be relevant to decision-making for actors and organisations, but it remains highly speculative and contestable in ontological and epistemological terms, especially when taking their material backing into account. Enabled by the new methods of predictive algorithms and generative AI, synthetic data is increasingly being used to plausibly close existing gaps in forecasting processes that result from insufficient or non-existent data.

This rises two questions concerning synthetic data this contribution likes to address: (a) Which knowledge about the future is made ‘tangible’ or ‘durable’ in the present using synthetic data and its underlying models, and (b) which ontological and epistemological challenges arise and are discussed when synthetic data models are used to create “plausible futures”.

This contribution draws on empirical material from the investigation of a data-driven anticipatory action programme that is used for humanitarian crisis forecasting of scientific and political actors. It will be shown how synthetic data models are used by the actors to close data gaps to enable a shift from reactive to proactive and real-time crises management. Through the lens of material-discursive practices this contribution shows the entanglement of onto-epistemological challenges and its underlying politics in the production of future knowledge as well as the mediating role of these models between the speculative and the calculable.