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Paper short abstract

We examine how the extended developmental phase of quantum computing affects scientists' perceptions of their anticipatory abilities, and how scientific knowledge is affected by "anticipated disruptions" across three scientific disciplines: weather forecasting, public health, and cryptography.

Paper long abstract

In this paper, we examine how the extended developmental phase of quantum computing affects scientists' perceptions of their anticipatory abilities, and how scientific knowledge is affected by "anticipated disruptions" across three scientific disciplines: weather forecasting, public health, and cryptography.

We stand at a unique moment in technological history: quantum computing's transformative capabilities are theoretically established and widely acknowledged, yet practical implementation remains elusive. This temporal gap between knowledge and operationalization creates a distinct sociotechnical phenomenon worthy of systematic investigation, regarding the nexus between uncertainty, preparedness, scientific knowledge, and future imagination. Unlike previous technological revolutions, in which understanding and deployment emerged concurrently, quantum computing forces scientific communities to navigate an extended period of becoming futures and anticipatory governance, that is, planning for disruption that is both emerging and indefinitely delayed.

We investigate how experts across domains and contexts conceptualize quantum computing's timeline and operational readiness; how they balance current research priorities against future quantum-enabled possibilities; what institutional preparations, if any, they are undertaking despite quantum computing's non-operational status; how they navigate notions of uncertainty about implementation timelines while maintaining research agendas and securing funding; and how those contexts shape their assessment of when and whether quantum disruption demands present action, and the way is which doing scientific "knowledge" itself is disrupted.