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Long abstract

In times of increasing geopolitical uncertainty and accelerating technological change, the ability of organizations to anticipate and shape possible futures has become a critical strategic capability. Foresight and Future Literacy are therefore increasingly recognized as key competencies that enable organizations to navigate uncertainty and shape innovation. However, despite their strategic relevance, anticipatory capabilities often remain marginal within corporate decision-making processes.

A central reason lies in the structural logic of organizations. Corporate governance and performance management systems are typically driven by short-term key performance indicators (KPIs) and measurable outputs. As a result, long-term anticipatory capabilities frequently struggle to gain legitimacy within existing organizational evaluation frameworks. This creates a paradox: while foresight is essential for innovation and future-oriented transformation, its institutionalization often conflicts with prevailing managerial logics.

This study addresses this tension by introducing the concept of a Future Literacy Index, designed to make anticipatory capabilities measurable within existing organizational performance logics. Based on established foresight frameworks and practical experience in foresight training, a preliminary Future Literacy Test was developed and piloted. By translating futures-oriented competencies into an evaluative format, the approach seeks to bridge the gap between anticipatory thinking and short-term organizational performance metrics.

Keywords: Future Literacy; Foresight: Anticipatory Capabilities; Organizational Decision-Making