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Paper short abstract

We examine how shared guiding visions for situation pictures can be developed across divergent future imaginaries in heterogeneous actor networks. Using a workshop-based design on an ideal 2040 system, we translate narrative imaginaries into operational chains of action.

Paper long abstract

A situation picture allows for the exchange of situation-relevant information in crises and disasters. Therefore, it is key to system resilience and to shared situational awareness. However, their design can be contested, as heterogeneous actor networks are shaped by divergent imaginaries of the future, ultimately hindering efficient system design and use.

Therefore, we propose developing shared guiding visions despite these differing future imaginaries and to test and improve chains of action. Specifically, we ask how shared guiding visions can be developed across divergent future imaginaries to inform and operationalize chains of action.

To address this question, we adopt a qualitative, workshop-based research design to investigate the production and operationalization of future knowledge in heterogeneous actor networks. Specifically, we report on an exploratory analysis of participant responses to a story completion exercise, in which a transdisciplinary group of partners from five German research projects in the field of civil security were asked to imagine an ideal situation picture for the year 2040, describing its components and functioning. Using the normative scenario technique, implicit future imaginaries are a) synthesized into guiding visions and b) stress-tested by prompting participants to plan actions and tracing how imaginaries inform operational knowledge under uncertainty.

The aim of our analysis is to show how narrative future imaginaries can be translated into operational chains of action in complex actor networks and to identify structures (e.g., networks, technologies) that can be mobilized to approximate these guiding visions and address vulnerabilities we might face today.