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Paper short abstract

This proposal explores how economic forecasting models act by simulating the economy as a gendered body enduring shocks. It shows that by doing so, models frame sudden policy change as the only available political action, producing the need for constant economic monitoring.

Paper long abstract

Economic forecasting models function by simulating the economic future. Nowadays, such models rely on data inputs that are more and more frequent, and in return these models are increasingly relied on for decision making. Indeed, policymakers are continuously asking for economic expertise, thus contributing to shorten the delay between two runs of the model. In times of such modeling acceleration, the form and structure of these models matter greatly, as it directly impacts how they act on economic reality. Thus, this communication will explore how economic forecasting models act and what kind of decision making they produce, through a detailed analysis of one of the main French models for economic forecasting (operated by the French central bank). First, I will show that both in their structure and in the descriptions of their results, such models perform a conception of the economy as a gendered body enduring shocks. Then, I will show that the economic policies provoked by these models are centered around applying shocks to the economy in order to « wake her up ». Indeed, the models make inflicting economic shocks, i.e. abrupt policy change in one sense or the other, the only available political action. I will conclude by arguing that economic forecasting models act as pseudo-medical monitoring of the economy, producing repeated brutal policies as economic shocks.

Keywords: economic forecasting, models, expertise, gender, shocks