Paper short abstract:

Despite continuing enthusiasm for preparedness for unexpected events they strike society regularly with severe damages. ICT is regarded as adequate tool to anticipate potential future events. The adherence to the myth that future unexpected events can be managed via the use of ICT will be analysed.

Paper long abstract:

Although there is continuing enthusiasm for planning and being prepared even for unexpected events in the future, unexpected events in form of crises and disasters strike society with awesome regularity and severe damages. In the field of civil security Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) are regarded as adequate tools to anticipate potential future events and for their management. Firstly, examples of designing futures in the development of ICT will be examined based on empirical data. Secondly, theoretical considerations will be put up for discussion which highlight the question why the unexpected will still remain a "Black Swan" (Taleb 2010) often with serious or catastrophic effects on organisations and/or society regardless of all attempts of preparedness and prevention. Third, the adherence to the myth, idea(l) and expectation that unexpected events in the future can be 'managed' and its societal and organisational consequences will be analysed mainly on the basis of a systems-theoretical approach.