Paper short abstract:

Drawing from a study of downtown development in Chicago, I compare the concepts of speculation and planning. Statistical and visualization practices validated both, providing experts with the confidence to predict future trends while simultaneously manipulating those same trends.

Paper long abstract:

My paper places into dialogue two ways of confronting future uncertainty: speculation and planning. Speculation is behavior that allows individual capitalists to anticipate and outwit short-term uncertainties while planning involves intentional action taken to reduce uncertainties for the collective. Both play a role in the development of cities as technological systems as well as in the construction of the markets that underpin the space economy.

The anticipatory gaze—what some call "expectancy"—is highly formalized in urban development. Future-oriented practices like modelling, impact analyses, and forecasting forge an operational path for both the financialization and state management of cities. Statistical foresight and visualization tools gave new respect to speculation and planning, both of which embody a confidence in the capacity of experts to predict future trends while simultaneously offering opportunities to manipulate those same trends. However, while capitalists generally laud speculation and vilify planning, planners do the opposite.

I answer the questions: How do professionals view the distinction between speculating and planning? Do speculators plan, and do planners ever speculate? What kinds of tools do agents use to convert urban futures into objects of knowledge? How do they maintain their detachment from possible futures while also producing them?

I base my analysis on a case study of office development in Chicago between 1998 and 2009. I conducted over 80 interviews with professionals in the urban development field to understand how these market actors' conceptions of time intersected with their activities.