Paper short abstract:

The talk develops a concept for analysing the efficacy of visions of the future as socio-epistemic practices in current processes of innovation and transformation. This is needed for a real-time technology assessment of heterogeneous technologies.

Paper long abstract:

Technology Assessment (TA) is increasingly confronted with practices that create, influence and instrumentalise sociotechnical visons of the future. These visions seem to have a constitutive role for innovation and transformation processes in the present involving very heterogeneous technologies. Research in STS revealed insights into the efficacy of visions in such processes, but mainly in a retrospective manner. It is analytically difficult to investigate what exactly visions enable and effect in the specific practices and processes in the present. A focus on the normative implications and the scientific and technical feasibility of visionary ideas as in recent vision assessments in TA is not sufficient. Increasingly analyses and orientation are sought after which show the efficacy of visions in processes because of new and enabling technologies (e.g. nanotechnology) and the great transformations (e.g. energy, climate change). This needs analytical approaches that focus on the role of visons in practices.

The contribution develops a theoretical-methodological concept to make such effects of visions as practices in current processes analysable. In it, visions are conceptualised as socio-epistemic practices that are constitutive in social processes because they enable productions of new knowledge and new sociotechnical arrangements. Based on different examples - such as smart grid, Big Data and open source digital fabrication - a concept is developed which enables insights concerning the process related efficacy of visions for a real-time TA that accompanies these processes.