Short abstract:

Integrated system planning is now used to identify the 'optimal' path forward through the renewable energy transition in Australia, drawing on diverse knowledges. This paper asks whether it represents a transformation of expertise, and what it means for the trajectory of the energy transition.

Long abstract:

The challenges of managing the rapid transition to renewable energy in Australia have prompted efforts to develop a more coordinated, holistic approach. Conceived as a ‘roadmap’ for the energy sector, a biennial Integrated System Plan has been prepared by the Australian Energy Market Operator since 2018, based on modelling of an ‘optimal’ path forward that is expected to inform policy, infrastructure investment and regulatory reform. The plan is based on two-year cycles of extensive stakeholder and public consultation on model inputs, methodology and scenarios. The integration of technological, policy, regulatory, economic and social considerations drawn from diverse forms of knowledge is seen to ensure normative legitimacy as well as epistemic integrity, and over the years the process has expanded to include more channels for input by more diverse groups, including energy consumers, first nations communities and rural landholders. In this paper I examine the development of this planning process itself as an ongoing negotiation of the expertise deemed necessary to understand and manage the complexity of the renewable energy transition. Based on document analysis and interviews, I consider the extent to which it represents the transformation of expertise that it appears to, and what this means for the trajectory of the transformation in the Australian energy system and society.