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Short abstract:

The paper proposes the concept of "counterfactual world-making" to explore alternative practices for valuing forest worlds. The Rimba Raya Biodiversity Reserve Project in Indonesia is used to illustrate how counterfactual practices contribute to different modes of world-making.

Long abstract:

The uncertain and hypothetical nature of carbon credit calculations often involves the creation of counterfactuals to establish baselines, particularly in the context of forest loss rates and carbon sequestration. However, critics argue that counterfactual practices are inherently uncertain and vulnerable to questions about their integrity, potentially leading to the overestimation of deforestation and the creation of low-quality or invalid carbon credits. To address these concerns, recognising counterfactual plurality might give way to other practices for valuing and making more desirable forest worlds. In this regard, the concept of "counterfactual world-making" is proposed as a lens to investigate the multiplicity of counterfactual practices. This concept emphasises the collaborative and interconnected processes through which diverse entities contribute to constructing and assessing carbon sinks and the broader dynamics of carbon offsetting initiatives. By examining the case study of the Rimba Raya Biodiversity Reserve Project in Indonesia, three pathways through which counterfactual practices contribute to different modes of world-making are identified: by rendering forests into legal entities, estimating hypothetical forest carbon, and valuing forests through carbon markets. This investigation sheds light on the complex and dynamic processes through which different entities contribute to the construction and assessment of carbon sinks and the broader dynamics of carbon offsetting initiatives, offering critical insights into the complexities of assessing and valuing carbon sequestration projects within the carbon market.