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Paper short abstract

The paper explores the experiences of Ukrainian (forced) migrants in Poland. It offers a theoretical framework of the dialectic between uncertainty and certainty, providing a lens through which to investigate the dynamics of affects among crisis-affected individuals.

Paper long abstract

The paper explores the experiences of Ukrainian migrants and forced migrants in Poland and how the war in Ukraine has influenced their sense of time, uncertainty, and decision-making. My research was guided by, among others, the question of whether the state of waiting exclusively elicits the affect of uncertainty, or whether individuals also experience other affects and a divergent perception of their circumstances. I claim that when uncertainty is overwhelming, one waits for “small certainties” that allow for ontological security and may bring relief. Navigating the war and the foreign country as a (forced) migrant is navigating between certainty and uncertainty. Therefore, I will present the application of the uncertainty-certainty dialectic as a framework for examining how war and other rapid transitions affect populations. I will argue that uncertainty and certainty should be approached by moving beyond dichotomy and considered dialectic, i.e., as forces working together and complementing each other. Prior research largely treats uncertainty as the sole, defining affect – an absence of knowledge or passive limbo. My paper will challenge this view by arguing that prolonged uncertainty may transform into certainty and proactive engagement. By introducing this dialectic, I will demonstrate waiting transformation from a passive, empty state into a dynamic, active form of waiting, which entails regaining agency. A central argument of my paper is that for individuals affected by the crisis, it is crucial to acknowledge the dynamic interplay of various interdependent affects and to broaden the analytical perspective to integrate the uncertainty-certainty dialectic.