Paper short abstract:

Based on concepts of "imagined futures" this paper argues that resource sector governance in post-conflict can only contribute to sustainable peace if it takes into account mining populations´ experiences with time, particularly their fictional expectations of the future.

Paper long abstract:

Sociology has only very recently begun to take into account people's conceptions not just of present realities but also of the future. Newer works in market sociology aim to explain how "fictional expectations" (Beckert 2015) inform the decisions of agents on how to act today. In the case of post-conflict societies where decisions on economic strategies are made under conditions of high uncertainty and the expectation of fast "peace dividends" is high, the question of how actors conceptualize the future is especially pertinent. Natural resource governance in particular can be a high-stakes issue that can make and break the consolidation of peace depending on whether expectations of social and economic change are met. This paper aims to draw attention to the role that expectations of the future play in post-conflict societies, particularly in mining-affected societies. Based on extensive field research in the Sierra-Leonean diamond market it argues that in order for the reform of extractive sectors to be successful, decision-makers must understand (1) the past personal and societal experiences that inform the economic strategies of market participants, (2) the temporality of social relations that make up the social structure of the market, (3) society's expectations of micro and macro level changes. Where the expectations and future-oriented strategies of mining-affected populations remain poorly understood, peacebuilding and development policies will not be able to address their needs. In post-conflict states, the failure to understand "imagined futures" can cause a loss of political legitimacy that can easily threaten the consolidation of peace.