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Paper short abstract

In February 2025, Japan adopted its 7th Strategic Energy Plan, shifting toward maximizing nuclear power use fifteen years after Fukushima. This presentation critiques the underestimation of nuclear costs and the use of misleading integration costs to devalue renewables, highlighting the resurgence of regulatory capture.

Paper long abstract

In February 2025, the Japanese government formally adopted the 7th Strategic Energy Plan, marking a clear reversal in national energy policy. The plan abandons the post Fukushima objective of reducing dependence on nuclear power and instead promotes its maximized use as a stable and low carbon energy source. This presentation examines the social and economic implications of this policy shift, with a particular focus on the renewed push for nuclear reactor restarts.

Drawing on the concept of Genpatsu Shinsai (the quake and nuclear disaster complex), I argue that key lessons identified after the 2011 accident, especially the recognition of Fukushima as a man-made disaster and the problem of regulatory capture, are increasingly being sidelined. Recent evaluations by the government’s Cost Verification Working Group claim that nuclear power remains cost competitive. A closer examination, however, reveals systematic underestimation of nuclear costs. These assessments rely on hypothetical model plants that fail to reflect the reality of sharply rising construction costs, which globally now reach trillions of yen per reactor, as well as escalating expenditures for safety measures and accident compensation. In addition, the polluter pays principle is being weakened, as accident-related costs are increasingly shifted onto the public through electricity network charges. By contrast, the potential of renewable energy is consistently undervalued. Despite international evidence showing renewables to be among the cheapest sources of electricity, Japanese policy making relies on conservative assumptions and inflated integration costs to justify continued reliance on nuclear power.

This presentation critiques these methodological choices and argues that they distort public debate and contribute to a persistent deadlock in Japan’s energy transition. It also questions the suitability of operators such as TEPCO to lead reactor restarts, given their record of safety failures, which casts serious doubt on the claim that safety is the highest priority. I conclude that Japan’s current policy trajectory risks repeating past mistakes by prioritizing the preservation of the nuclear power establishment over the development of a transparent and sustainable energy system.