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Paper short abstract

This paper examines how intensifying great power competition has influenced the evolution of Japan’s Official Development Assistance (ODA) policy in recent years in terms of the principles, priorities, and distributional patterns of Japanese aid.

Paper long abstract

This paper examines how intensifying great power competition has influenced the evolution of Japan’s Official Development Assistance (ODA) policy in recent years. Rather than centering on discursive shifts or normative debates, the study focuses on how strategic rivalry, most notably in the context of U.S.–China competition, has shaped the principles, priorities, and distributional patterns of Japanese aid. The core question guiding the paper is how competition-related considerations are reflected in the material organization of ODA.

The paper approaches Japanese ODA as a foreign policy instrument whose role and configuration have evolved alongside changing regional and global power dynamics. It directs attention to three interrelated dimensions. First, it examines changes in official policy frameworks and guiding principles that have structured aid provision since the mid-2010s. Second, it explores shifts in sectoral priorities, with particular attention to infrastructure, connectivity, and capacity-building initiatives. Third, it analyzes evolving geographical and country-level allocations to assess whether aid patterns increasingly correspond to strategic competition dynamics.

Methodologically, the paper proposes an analysis over time of Japanese ODA policy and aid patterns from the mid-2010s onward. Particular attention is paid to whether recent geopolitical developments, including heightened U.S.–China rivalry and the post-Ukraine war context, have reinforced, redirected, or accelerated existing trends in Japan’s aid policy. As a work in progress, the study aims to identify emerging patterns and clarify analytical expectations rather than present finalized empirical conclusions. By examining how great power competition intersects with the sectoral and geographical architecture of Japanese ODA, this paper contributes to broader discussions on foreign aid, strategic rivalry, and Japan’s evolving role in regional and global order-building.