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Paper short abstract

The paper identifies three categories of new voices contesting rural subnational elections in Japan: recent in-migrants; new local parties; and local branches of “populist” parties and asks how these three groups impact contestation and participation through an overview and select cases.

Paper long abstract

Japan's electoral competition and party system has undergone visible upheaval in recent years: the ruling coalition losing majorities and the formation of an alternate one, the surge of new “populist” parties on the right and left, as well as newly salient issues such as immigration, overtourism, and inflation.

Yet it is unclear that any such substantial transformation is occurring at subnational level. On the face of it, municipal and prefectural elections, particularly in rural areas, are mired in uncompetitive contests, a shortage of candidates, low turnout, and an inability of opposition parties to develop strong party organizations. No significant subnational populist party organization has emerged in rural areas as often identified in other democracies.

Yet, dig a little deeper and there are signs of change in what appears to be mere slow decay.

The paper identifies three important categories of new voices in rural subnational elections: 1.) Recent in-migrants (usually younger, often female, with novel ideas and experiences to transform the local community); 2) New local parties and groups (although predominantly in urban areas, but emerging in rural prefectural assemblies and municipalities that are not affiliated to national parties, but have distinct local policy programs and organization); and 3) Local branches and representatives of new national parties such as Reiwa Shinsengumi and Sanseito (particularly the latter which has rapidly expanded seats in subnational elections across the country).

The paper asks how these three new voices impact contestation and participation in rural subnational elections. Which kind of issues do they articulate and campaign for, under what kind of ideological framework? Do these three voices diverge or converge on national-level issues? Are these three new voices distinct or overlapping in their actors and networks? What are their relative strengths and weaknesses in achieving their respective goals? And ultimately, have any of these new groups captured enough seats to substantially impact local government policy and budgeting?

The paper provides an overview of these trends and case studies of local governments which have experienced an influx of these groups in legislature and/or executive level to begin to answer the above questions.