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Paper short abstract

The paper will analyze Japan's recent diplomatic policies of their impact on Japan's economic and security situation with regard to China and the U.S.'s attitude to propose future hedging strategies that maximize Japan's benefit.

Paper long abstract

Japan, a major middle power country in the Asia-Pacific, is facing another diplomatic challenge in 2026. China, Japan’s largest trade partner and security threat, has increased its assertiveness in the geopolitical dispute with Taiwan. Meanwhile, the United States, the pillar of Japan’s national security, is retreating into a protectionism that does not prioritize international peacebuilding over domestic economic interests under Donald Trump’s administration. While Japan still relies on both superpowers, the country's current prime minister Takaichi Sanae’s U.S.-favoring diplomatic policies are raising concerns regarding the future of the hedging strategy. This paper, on the basis of Japan’s diplomatic situation in 2026, compares Japan’s benefits from China and the U.S., analyzes the shortcomings of Japan’s recent diplomacy, and then offers a solution for the future. It argues that, firstly, based on the current context, Japan should adopt a China-leaning strategy for at least the next three years because the economic gains outweigh the destabilizing security reliance on the U.S. Secondly, Japan’s recent diplomatic strategy, although long-term beneficial, is overly pressuring its economy and security issues in the short term. Finally, Japan’s hedging strategy should be leaning towards China in the next three years to reduce economic and security pressure and prepare for the decoupling from China. Then, Japan can hedge back to the U.S. after it withdraws from protectionism.