Paper short abstract:

This paper explores the socio-political factors to account for conservative mobilization across Japan by using the event data.

Paper long abstract:

We have witnessed the growing presence of conservative or right-wing movements around the world, exemplified by the increasing popularity of extreme-right movements and political parties in European countries. In the post-Cold War Japan, conservative or right-wing movements have become salient in the socio-political as to such issues as history textbook, patriotic education, national pride, anti-voting rights for foreign residents, and the amendment of Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution. These so-called Ukeika (rightward shift) phenomena have been driven by politicians, but the role of civic groups and their national movements have also gained media attention --- notably, the Nippon Kaigi (NK) and their activities in the 2nd Abe administration. How can we grasp the Ukeika phenomenon? What affects conservative mobilization in Japan? This paper explores the factors to account for conservative mobilization across Japan by using my original data, JCED (Japanese Conservative Event Data, 1994-2020, Data source: Breath of Japan, NK's Periodical). JCED provides the number of events in each prefecture as conservative mobilization indicator and the paper will explore the following factors --- 1) political environment factors (vote share of LDP and strengths of LDP candidates), 2) economic factor (unemployment rate), 3) demographic factor (share of foreign residents), and 4) group resources (the number of local branches) --- as suggested by previous research. This study expects to articulate factors to explain conservative mobilization, tackling political/economic/social factors altogether, while existing studies on Ukeika in Japan highlighting the effect of economic downturn and recession after the 1990s in particular, and to help understand the Ukeika phenomenon that has been a latent threat to a democracy in Japan and has undermined amicable relations with neighboring countries.