Paper short abstract:

This paper examines the role of US military bases in on Okinawa in East Asian geopolitics. The bases are justified due to their 'deterrent' function. However, the paper finds that rather than 'deterrence', these bases are highly vulnerable and would be 'magnets' for missiles in a conflict.

Paper long abstract:

Okinawa has a complex and tragic history. The string of small islands running from Kyushu south to Taiwan have, at various historical junctures, found themselves at the centre of regional and global geopolitics. Annexed in order to secure Japan’s frontiers against the encroachment of the Western Powers in the 19th Century, sacrificed in order to protect the home islands in World War II, and militarized in order to enable the rapid deployment of troops against communist forces in the 20th, the islands’ history has been shaped by geopolitical decisions made thousands of kilometres away in Tokyo and Washington DC. Okinawa is today caught in the middle of the developing rivalry between China and Japan-US alliance.

The plan to relocate a US Marine Corp base from Futenma, Okinawa, to Henoko, also on Okinawa, has been framed by Japanese politicians, officials and analysts as crucial to deterrence. Critics respond that deterrence is a pretext and the relocation is a convenient solution which unfairly burdens Okinawa; meanwhile the majority of Okinawans want it relocated off the island entirely. This paper draws on deterrence theory to evaluate the deterrence claims made by relocation proponents. It finds little evidence: against the massive US forward deployment, including the Seventh Fleet and the Fifth Air Force, the Marines’ capabilities are negligible. As for the local balance of forces, the Marines are unlikely to participate in a local conflict and their geographical location leaves them highly vulnerable. Other US bases in Japan play a more important ‘tripwire’ role, and US extended deterrence to Japan is as credible as possible under the circumstances.

The paper concludes that the current treatment of the islands is unsustainable and counterproductive. The presence of massive military bases makes the islands a ‘magnet’ for missile attack in a regional crisis. This fact, combined with decades of second-class treatment, have led to the development of a victim identity, combining the anti-base movement and Okinawan nationalism. In order to maintain long-term credible deterrence against China, Tokyo and DC must reconsider the Futenma base relocation.