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Paper short abstract:

Local railways in Japan are facing a wide variety of challenges, among them demographic change, a higher car ownership and fragmented rail ownership. This presentation will address these challenges and look ahead what local railways will be like in the 2020s.

Paper long abstract:

Japan is a country famous for its railways, especially for the shinkansen and the efficient railway and subway networks in the large metropolises. However, local railways in Japan are facing a wide variety of challenges in the 2020s, among them are the demographic change with an ageing population, which means fewer regular passengers as there are less students and commuters. Also, as Japan's population has started shrinking a few years ago, especially in rural areas, many local railways are losing their customer base. Furthermore, the number of cars in Japan as well as the car ownership rates keep rising in all of Japan (with the exception of Tokyo), thus intensifying the competition between different transport modes.

One response to this challenges is the closure of railway lines and their replacement by buses, if there is no political willingness to support the railway lines as a social infrastructure. Another response is that municipalities or prefectures take over railways from a private operator, which avoids the closure of the railway but further fragmentates Japan's railway network. Fortunately we have seen a huge amount of support for railways in recent years, but challenges remain.

This presentation will look into the problems and challenges of local railways in Japan, and discusses different approaches to support the railway network, among them financial support for railways as well as a new ownership models. It will be analyzed which approaches are expected to bring the largest benefits for the local population.