Paper short abstract:

The Abe period has been characterized by a significant evolution of the Japanese military doctrine. The paper describes this evolution, looking at the changing objectives and roles of the JSDF and discusses the main external as well as domestic drivers of change.

Paper long abstract:

The paper describes the evolution of Japan's military doctrine during the Abe period (2012-2020). The military doctrine is considered as the institutional operationalization of the cognitive frameworks and preferences of the political and organizational leadership for its military structure. Military doctrines are generally presented in official documents, such as, in the Japanese case, the NDPG (National Defense Program Guidelines), recently published in 2013 and in 2018, as well in the country's first National Security Strategy.

During the post-war and the 1990s, the Japanese self-defence forces had only one main stated purpose, namely defensive defence. Since the beginning of the 21st century, and particularly since 2012, Japan fundamentally reconsidered its military doctrine.

This evolution has been driven by several factors. Firstly, the country has been confronted with an increasingly severe security environment: China's military expansion, coupled with the recurrent use of grey zone tactics in the South and East China Seas; North Korea's nuclear and ballistic programme; and finally the perceived unreliability of the Trump administration.

Secondly, domestic factors have also played a significant role. On the one hand, the political leadership provided by Prime Minister Abe and its durability were functional to the implement security reforms. On the other hand, despite very significant steps in terms of legislation, such as the re-interpretation of the Article 9 of the Constitution and the approval of the security legislation in 2015, the Japanese "culture of anti-militarism" has continued to affect security policies and the military doctrine, particularly in terms of limiting interoperability and constraints to offensive capabilities.

Recent reforms introduced a key new purpose for the JSDF: dynamic deterrence. This was designed to close 'windows of deterrence' in the East China Sea, containing China's 'creeping expansion' and grey zone tactics. In the process, Japan has increased ISR capabilities and inter-service cooperation, promoted new policies in the cyber and space domains, and adopted a "whole of government" approach to defence. Moreover, Japan has made efforts to improve interoperability in the alliance with the US and has fostered new security partnership with like-minded states in the region.