Paper short abstract:

Can Japan once again become a leader in Asia? Or this is more a wish of declining western influence being able to leverage its clout in Japan to maintain a more prominent role through them as their agent? Authors will examine trade and FDI flows, as well as multilateral relationships in the region.

Paper long abstract:

In November 2019 Ian Bremmer, well renowned in the fields of political science and political global risk, delivered a speech at the 2019 GZERO Summit in Tokyo. The topic of the speech was, "The End of the American International Order: What Comes Next?" The overall tenor of the speech was the decline of US preeminence in the world and the rise of powers that will be far more prevalent, especially China, in the Asian theater. Bremmer hypothesizes that Chinese influence emanating from many new initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, can be ameliorated by a resurgence of Japanese influence in the region. Based on Japan's stability, social safety net, their emphasis not on growth and profit at all costs, ability to act as a buffer between the US and China, especially with respect to creating the AIIB as a more multilateral institution, its international work the Five Eyes intelligence alliance and its preeminent position in providing healthcare, creating smart cities and redesigned workplace for the 21st century.

That is quite an ambitious outlook for Japan, which has long languished secondary (and decreasing) role in the Asian theater. The question this article asks and intends to answer is: Is Bremmer's contention of Japan once again becoming a leader in the Asian theater founded, or is this more the wish of a declining western influence being able to leverage its clout in Japan to maintain a more prominent role through them as their agent?

The authors will examine trade and FDI flows in the region with respect to the US and the EU over the last twenty years in order to make assumptions on the waxing or waning influence of the diverse players. Secondly, the authors will look at multilateral relationships amongst the diverse players and draw conclusion here as well, with respect to relative power and influence.

This will be set within a theoretical framework and finally conclusions drawn on the feasibility of Japan being able to once again rise to a position of power in the waning days of US hegemony in Asia and in the world.