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Paper short abstract

This paper analyzes how political and policy shifts have shaped tax revenue trends in four fragile sub-Saharan African countries, revealing the importance of tailored, context-sensitive approaches for effective tax capacity building and domestic resource mobilization in post-conflict settings.

Paper long abstract

This paper investigates the role of political and policy changes in shaping tax revenue trends in four Sub-Saharan African countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and Mozambique. While these four countries have faced significant statebuilding challenges and received sizeable aid flows, they display divergent patterns in tax revenue collection over the period 1980–2023. Using a structural break test model on time series data of tax revenue as a share of GDP, the study identifies the timing and significance of shifts in tax revenue trends and examines their correspondence with key political and policy changes. For example, in the DRC, a major break in 2007 aligns with political normalization following the 2006 elections, while in Mozambique, a notable shift corresponds to reforms in tax administration and tax policy structure (e.g., introduction of digital taxation, removal of tax exemptions, introduction of value-added taxes). Sierra Leone’s 1999 break coincides with political stabilization after conflict, and in Rwanda, structural changes are linked to post-conflict reconstruction and the introduction of significant tax reforms. Complementary comparative analysis of tax categories and reform reports since 2000 highlights the country-specific nature of these developments. The results underscore the importance of context-sensitive policy evaluation and suggest that international support for tax capacity building must be tailored to the unique political and institutional environments of fragile states. These insights offer valuable guidance for future research and policy interventions to strengthen domestic resource mobilization in post-conflict settings.