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Paper short abstract

Becker’s economic model of fertility explains fertility decision through a quantity–quality trade-off driven by rising incomes and the increasing cost of investing in children. This paper extends Becker’s framework by foregrounding care responsibilities as central to fertility decisions.

Paper long abstract

Becker’s economic model of fertility explains declining birth rates through a quantity–quality trade-off, where rising incomes and returns to human capital increase the cost of children. While influential, this framework treats childrearing primarily as a financial investment decision and under-theorises the role of care as a binding constraint on reproductive behaviour.

This paper extends Becker’s fertility model by explicitly incorporating care responsibilities—including childcare, eldercare, and unpaid domestic labour—as central determinants of fertility outcomes. Using household-level evidence from India, the analysis shows that reproductive decisions are shaped not only by income and education, but by the availability of care support systems that reduce the time and physical burden of reproduction. Historically, extended family networks—particularly elderly household members—played a critical role in subsidising care work. However, demographic ageing, migration, and the erosion of joint-family arrangements have weakened these informal care institutions.

At the same time, public provision of care remains limited, uneven, and poorly aligned with women’s labour market participation. The resulting care deficit increases the effective cost of childbearing beyond what is captured in standard Beckerian models, contributing to declining fertility even among households that do not face financial constraints in the conventional sense.

By bringing care explicitly into the economic analysis of fertility, this paper reframes reproductive outcomes as responses to time scarcity and care infrastructure failures rather than solely to preferences or income effects. The findings suggest that addressing fertility decline requires rethinking care provision as a collective responsibility, rather than treating reproduction as a private household decision.