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Paper short abstract

This paper presents a comparative political economy analysis of the World Bank's Mission 300 electrification agenda, examining how national compacts are being negotiated and implemented in Ghana, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia, and what this reveals about energy reforms and green transitions in Africa

Paper long abstract

The World Bank and African Development Bank’s Mission 300 agenda aims to provide electricity to 300 million people in Africa by 2030. With energy framed as the foundation for development, M300 also seeks to catalyse the region’s economic transformation. Its central instrument is the “national energy compact”, through which governments can articulate energy targets, investment strategies and reform agendas. M300 is heralded as a departure from conditionality-based, one-size-fits-all reforms towards country ownership, while offering potential to leverage large-scale private finance by aligning African governments’ development priorities with the risk-return expectations of international capital.

The paper develops an exploratory comparative political economy analysis of how Ghana, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia are engaging with M300. Selected for their diverse political systems, ideological orientations, energy institutions and access rates, the cases are used to explore how the overarching M300 agenda –and the ever-expanding constellation of development finance institutions, donors, philanthropies and institutional investors supporting it– is interacting with distinct domestic political economies. The analysis examines whether compacts reflect genuinely differentiated priorities or converge around particular reform trajectories and investment models, shaped by wider structural, disciplinary and ideational forces.

Situating M300 within wider debates on the financialisation of development, the paper analyses evolving approaches to development finance, de-risking and private capital mobilisation. It also explores ambiguities surrounding renewable energy adoption, fossil fuels and balance between grid and off-grid solutions. Finally, it considers the politics of implementation, highlighting how reforms may be resisted, reinterpreted or unevenly enacted, and the implications for green transitions in Africa.