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Paper short abstract

Using 2016 IFPRI data and an Endogenous Switching Regression model, this study examines determinants of digital agriculture access and its welfare effects among smallholder and commercial farmers. Study finds that access is unequal, smallholder gain more, lower inequality among users, & (ATU>ATT).

Paper long abstract

Digital agriculture is increasingly promoted as a transformative pathway for agri-food systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite growing investments, unequal access threatens to deepen existing inequalities, particularly among smallholder farmers in Malawi. This study examines the determinants of digital agriculture access and its welfare effects, distinguishing between commercial and smallholder farmers to assess heterogeneous impacts. Drawing on the Sustainable Livelihood Framework and using nationally representative 2016 IFPRI data (n = 3,006), we employ an Endogenous Switching Regression model to address selection bias. Digital access is measured as the receipt of agricultural information via mobile phones, SMS, radio, or television. Welfare is measured as log per capita annual expenditure. Results show that education, mobile phone ownership, social capital, and livestock assets significantly predict access, reinforcing socioeconomic divides. Digital access significantly increases welfare, with smallholder farmers experiencing gains of 65% compared to 26% for commercial farmers. Households with digital access exhibit lower inequality (Gini 0.547 vs. 0.599 for non-users), yet excluded households have greater unrealized welfare potential (ATU > ATT). The study concludes that digital agriculture can reduce inequality if policies prioritize access for non-commercial farmers through targeted subsidies for mobile devices and data, rural electrification, and digital literacy programs. Findings challenge the narrative that digital tools inherently widen rural inequality and demonstrate that smallholders who face the greatest information constraints stand to gain the most from digital inclusion.