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Paper short abstract

This paper analyzes China-Türkiye investment under the BRI. It argues that while China offers developmental opportunities, its rise poses risks of asymmetric dependency. By applying OECD norms (ownership, transparency), Türkiye can mitigate threats and secure a more balanced Southern partnership.

Paper long abstract

Since the 2013 launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Türkiye has emerged as a critical node in the "Central Corridor." However, the relationship has fluctuated due to economic instability, the pandemic, and regional tensions. This paper examines the dual nature of China’s rise as a "Power South" actor, exploring whether its investment model acts as a catalyst for growth or a threat to the economic sovereignty of other Southern states like Türkiye.

Utilizing a historical narrative and case studies—including the 2015 Bilateral Investment Treaty and recent automotive and energy projects—the study evaluates the current momentum of cooperation. Central to the analysis is the potential for "normative convergence." We argue that the risks of asymmetric dependency and the "threat" of Northern-style dominance being replicated by Southern powers can be mitigated by adopting the four OECD principles for aid and investment: ownership, inclusive partnerships, transparency and accountability, and a results-oriented approach.

The paper reveals that China’s compliance with these norms is essential for revitalizing Türkiye’s role in the BRI. By asserting agency through standardized norms, Türkiye can move beyond being a passive recipient of capital to an active partner. Ultimately, the study concludes that the future of Southern-led developmentalism depends on the ability of emerging economies to demand transparency and mutual accountability, ensuring that the "New South" does not simply replicate the hierarchical structures of the old North.