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Paper short abstract

Despite Nigeria’s rich renewable resources, its energy system remains fossil fuel-dominated. Political, economic, and structural barriers, including policy bias, vested interests, and financial constraints, slow renewable deployment and rural electrification, slowing the energy transition.

Paper long abstract

This study examines the nature and progress of the energy transition in low-income, fossil fuel-dependent countries, using Nigeria as a case study. Despite abundant renewable energy resources, solar, hydropower, and wind, Nigeria’s electricity system remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with 78% of generation sourced from oil and gas as of 2020. Low electrification rates, particularly in rural areas where only 24.46% of the population has access, exacerbate socio-economic challenges amid rising energy demand. This research employs a qualitative policy and political economy analysis to investigate barriers and drivers of renewable energy adoption. Findings indicate that while Nigeria has articulated decarbonisation commitments through its Nationally Determined Contributions under the 2015 Paris Agreement and the 2021 Climate Change Act, implementation remains slow. Hydropower expansion is constrained by displacement conflicts, solar energy uptake faces technical and financial challenges, and wind energy remains largely undeveloped. Policy incentives favour fossil fuel investments, reinforcing conventional market dominance. Furthermore, political and economic dynamics, including the influence of fossil fuel interest groups and the limited capacity of renewable energy advocates, impede structural reform. Financial limitations, market barriers, and policy inconsistencies further restrict renewable energy deployment, particularly for rural electrification. The study concludes that Nigeria has significant technical potential for a sustainable energy transition, but progress is hampered by political economy and structural constraints. Insights from this analysis offer guidance for policymakers, investors, and researchers aiming to accelerate renewable energy adoption in low-income, fossil fuel-reliant contexts.