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Paper short abstract

Using WTO Trade Policy Review reports (2005–2025), I quantify diplomatic-linguistic hedging in Sub-Saharan African trade discourse (modals, uncertainty, conditionals). I compare to matched peers and link hedging to restrictions, reform delays, and discretionary policy space.

Paper long abstract

Trade outcomes depend not only on tariffs and market size but on how states frame commitments. This paper measures “diplomatic hedging” in Sub-Saharan Africa’s trade policy narratives using WTO Trade Policy Review (TPR) documents. We compile a corpus of government and Secretariat reports for selected Sub-Saharan African members (2005–2025) and use computational text analysis to quantify hedging (modal verbs, uncertainty markers, conditional and aspirational phrasing). We benchmark results against matched non-African developing countries and examine within-country change around shocks (commodity price collapses, elections, IMF programs). We then relate hedging intensity to policy signals in TPRs—new trade restrictions, delayed reforms, and discretion-based measures—controlling for income, trade openness, and institutional capacity. We validate the hedging index with hand-coding and show which sectors (agriculture, services, digital trade) exhibit ambiguity. The study identifies narrative patterns that may dilute bargaining credibility and proposes fixes: plain-language commitment templates, translation support, and negotiation briefs with verifiable timelines.