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Paper short abstract

The study employs a qualitative method to investigate the impact of U.S. aid retrenchment on Nigeria’s socioeconomic development, as well as the opportunities and risks of intensifying partnership with China as an alternative to fill the aid gap.

Paper long abstract

On 1 July 2025, the U.S. Secretary of State announced the formal end to USAID operations. This signified a reduction of aid to Nigeria, which has enjoyed progressive development cooperation with the U.S. since 1960. This decision portends a risk for Nigeria’s development trajectory. U.S. assistance to Nigeria constituted more than half the foreign assistance received from development partners. U.S. aid accounted for only 0.26% of Nigeria’s GDP. It played a significant role in Nigeria’s health and humanitarian sectors. UNICEF warns that millions of Nigerian children risk losing access to lifesaving support. China offers a mutually beneficial partnership that has the potential to fill this gap in Nigeria. Chinese aid, investments, and trade offer an alternative to Nigeria’s development aspirations in the face of U.S. aid retrenchment. Nigeria is positioned to benefit from China’s $50 billion pledge for Africa’s development. This study, using a post-development lens, examines the effects of US aid cuts on Nigeria’s socioeconomic development. It analyses the opportunities and risks of intensifying development cooperation with China as an alternative to U.S. aid. The study will use a qualitative method, combining desk research and Key Informant Interviews. Content analysis will be used to identify patterns, meanings, and themes from published articles and interview transcripts. Ethical considerations, including confidentiality, anonymity, and safety, will be observed. The study is expected to ascertain the actual cost of U.S. aid retrenchment to Nigeria. It will explain how Nigeria can ensure its agency and avoid dependency vis-à-vis the Chinese alternative.