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Paper short abstract

This paper compares Poland and South Africa’s development trajectories since the early 1990s. Drawing on structural change theory, it examines how liberalisation, institutional choices, and global interdependence shaped divergent patterns of structural transformation and development outcomes.

Paper long abstract

For many, the recent announcement by President Trump’s administration to exclude South Africa from the next G20 Leaders’ Summit in 2026 in Miami and to welcome Poland instead exemplifies the United States’ pressure on the ANC-led government and its Black Economic Empowerment agenda. Although President Trump’s decision appears largely politically motivated, his critique of South Africa’s economic stagnation, burdensome regulatory regime, and unsustainable redistributive policies is not without merit. Similarly, the US acknowledgement of Poland’s “rightful” place among the world’s twenty largest economies reflects Poland’s genuine development success.

Over the last 35 years, Poland’s GDP per capita increased from $1,700 in 1990 to $25,100 in 2024, while South Africa’s rose from $3,100 to $6,250 over the same period. This simple indicator, however, conceals far more complex structural transformations experienced by both countries. In the early 1990s, Poland and South Africa underwent profound economic, social, and political regime changes shaped by liberal free-market principles. Yet, due to differing exogenous and endogenous conditions, their development trajectories diverged sharply.

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, it compares the development track records of Poland and South Africa since the early 1990s. Second, by identifying key development underpinnings, it contributes to debates on whether development remains possible under conditions of contemporary global interdependence.

Drawing on structural change scholarship, the paper analyses country-specific transformation processes, demonstrating how patterns of development – such as resource reallocation across sectors, labour market shifts, and institutional and policy contexts – have shaped structural change and development outcomes.