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Paper short abstract

This study examines how exposure to natural disasters affect health differently by gender among adults aged 45+ in four major Indian metropolitan cities – Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai. The analysis also accounts for the ‘vulnerabilities’ faced by these cities in the context of climate change.

Paper long abstract

There is growing evidence that climate change will intensify the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Beyond the immediate toll on health and mortality, disasters often trigger indirect, long-term effects through mechanisms such as household income shocks, food insecurity, and restricted access to health care. Additionally, cities are sites where climate impacts intersect with social inequalities, magnifying risks for marginalized groups, especially women, children and elderly. This study examines how natural disasters affect health differently by gender among adults 45+ in 4 metro cities in India – Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai, considering each city’s climate vulnerabilities.

The study utilizes data from the first wave of the Longitudinal Ageing Survey of India (LASI – Wave 1), World Health Organization’s data on natural disasters, Census 2011 data, and economic reports of states. The dependent variable ‘endemic disease’ is a binary variable, defined as the presence of any of the three types of diseases i.e., water-borne, vector-borne and infectious diseases in the past two years. The key independent variables are the ‘exposure to a natural disaster’ and the ‘climate change vulnerability index’. The vulnerability index captures the capability of a city to face a natural hazard. The control variables include socio economic and behavioral characteristics of the older adults. Multivariate logistic regression method was used to estimate the risk of endemic disease, given the exposure and vulnerability. The findings show that exposure to a natural disaster increases the risk of endemic diseases with significant variations by gender, age, socioeconomic characteristics and vulnerability.