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Paper short abstract

This paper explains variations in lithium industrial policies in Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile (2019–2025). Drawing on the political settlements framework, it shows how historically rooted ideas shaped industrial development strategies beyond economic or geopolitical explanations.

Paper long abstract

The rise of lithium as a key mineral in the energy transition has sparked growing interest among countries with large reserves in capturing the associated economic development opportunities. Between 2019 and 2025, progressive governments in the "lithium triangle" — Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile — advanced industrial policies aimed at adding value to lithium extraction in an effort to move beyond their role as exporters of raw materials. Comparative literature has highlighted differences among the three countries, particularly in the role assigned to the state and the mechanisms adopted for public sector involvement. To explain these variations, this paper challenges explanations centred on economic incentives and geopolitical dynamics and instead draws on recent debates about the role of ideas within the political settlements framework. It shows how policymakers shaped lithium governance through distinct interpretive lenses rooted in each country’s historical experience and development trajectory. The analysis draws on in-depth interviews with key government officials involved in policy formulation. The findings highlight how extractive legacies continue to shape policy choices: Bolivia’s colonial history of silver extraction, Chile’s neoliberal mining expansion under Pinochet's dictatorship, and Argentina’s developmentalist tradition of import substitution. By tracing how global development paradigms are translated, contested, and operationalised in specific national contexts, the paper contributes to debates on the local–global articulation of development and the geopolitics of knowledge production. It demonstrates how extractive legacies shape contemporary policy imaginaries, revealing both the potential and the constraints of development strategies in the context of the energy transition.