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Paper short abstract

This paper examines the political economy of green transitions in the Global South through electric mobility in Peru. It shows how China-linked technology diffusion and industry lobbying erode fuel excises revenues and generate distributional conflict over replacement fiscal instruments.

Paper long abstract

Green transitions are increasingly driven by global decarbonisation agendas and technology diffusion, yet their outcomes depend on how these forces interact with domestic political economy structures in the Global South. This paper examines the political economy of green transitions through the case of electric mobility in Peru.

In Peru, the electrification of road transport has been promoted through a coordinated package of fiscal incentives, regulatory reforms, and infrastructure planning. China plays a protagonist role in this transition through the supply of electric vehicles and related technologies and through industry coalitions that have actively lobbied for tax exemptions and regulatory adjustments. While these dynamics accelerate adoption, they also erode fuel-excise revenues that finance public goods and transport systems.

Drawing on an explanatory-sequential mixed-methods design, the paper combines scenario-based fiscal modelling and distributional incidence analysis with interviews and policy-document review. The analysis examines proposed replacement instruments such as distance-based road charges and ownership levies, showing how they redistribute the costs of transition across income groups and territories in an unequal and informal economy. These fiscal adjustments generate political contestation and raise risks for policy legitimacy and inclusion.

The paper argues that green transitions are not only technological or environmental processes but political struggles over revenue, distribution, and state capacity shaped by global–local interactions. It contributes to development studies by demonstrating why the sustainability of green transitions in the Global South depends on how external actors, domestic institutions, and distributive conflicts are managed.