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Paper long abstract

Climate change is increasingly referenced in global education-policy debates. Yet, there remains limited conceptual clarity on what climate change means for education systems, and how education systems should respond to intensifying climate-related shocks. This paper addresses this gap by developing an empirically grounded conceptual framework for analyzing government responses to extreme climate events in Pakistan, with a focus on Punjab and Sindh and four climatic hazards: heatwaves, flooding, drought, and air pollution.

Our study has two aims: to propose a conceptual model that captures how governments work to protect children’s education from climate-induced disruptions; and to outline an empirical research design that can test and refine this model. Guided by the question of what a coherent conceptualization of state responsiveness to climate shocks might look like, we draw on multiple frameworks from education policy, governance, and the political economy of climate action. These include principal–agent approaches such as Pritchett’s accountability matrix and models that highlight the multisectoral and humanitarian dimensions of crisis response.

Methodologically, the paper proceeds in three parts. We begin with an exposure analysis using publicly available environmental and administrative data to map school-going adolescents’ vulnerability to extreme climate events. We then synthesize insights from existing conceptual models to propose a framework suited to Pakistan’s context. Finally, we outline a logical research design for empirically examining policy responses to climate shocks.

Overall, the paper contributes to clarifying the emerging field of climate-change research in education policy by offering both conceptual precision and a pathway for empirical inquiry.