Send message to Author

Paper short abstract

Despite billions in aid, Nigeria faces record hunger. The old donor model is broken. This paper argues that to survive the 'polycrisis' of conflict and climate, aid must pivot from permanent relief to "food sovereignty" investing in local systems to break the cycle of dependency.

Paper long abstract

Nigeria currently represents a paradox in global development: despite being a primary recipient of international agricultural assistance, the nation faces its most severe food security crisis in decades. As the global aid architecture fractures under the weight of shrinking budgets and geopolitical shifts, the traditional donor-recipient model in Nigeria is proving increasingly insufficient. This paper examines the correlation between Official Development Assistance (ODA) volatility and agricultural resilience, arguing that the current aid model of humanitarian relief is failing to address the root causes of systemic hunger.

Drawing on recent disbursement trends and food security projections, this study analyses the impact of the "polycrisis", the convergence of conflict in the Northern regions, climate-induced disasters, and macroeconomic hyperinflation, on aid efficacy. The analysis reveals that while external aid has successfully averted famine in the short term, it has inadvertently created a "resilience deficit," leaving local food systems exposed to global shocks.

The paper posits that the future of aid in Nigeria must undergo a radical structural pivot: from funding consumption to de-risking production. It argues for a transition away from commodity-based food aid toward a framework of "Food Sovereignty." This includes the localisation of aid delivery, the prioritisation of climate-adaptive agricultural technologies, and the use of development finance to unlock private sector investment in the value chain. Ultimately, this submission contends that for aid to remain relevant in Nigeria’s future, it must cease acting as a permanent safety net and instead function as a catalyst for indigenous, self-sustaining food systems.