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Paper short abstract

Argentina stands in the cross-hairs of US-China rivalry. Its bountiful yet untapped copper reserves set the stage for a 21st-century case study of geopolitical competition, natural resource-led economic growth, and national development. What potential opportunities and pitfalls lie ahead?

Paper long abstract

Geopolitical competition over the planet’s critical minerals (CM) intensifies daily and, in the coming decades, is poised to shape development in the Global South. Complex, long-term, billion-dollar private and public CM deals often overshadow the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) efforts. In 2025, symbolically, the US discontinued USAID, yet it signed CM deals with Ukraine, Malaysia, Thailand, and Argentina. In the future, geopolitical competition will intersect with domestic institutions of developing countries, and over time, national development outcomes will differ. This paper analyzes Argentina and copper. UNCTAD predicts global copper demand surging 40% by 2040, outstripping supply. Argentina’s vast deposits came to light a century ago, but only now is its mining output taking off. Why? Today, it produces no copper, but by 2035, it will be a top-five producer. Future copper revenue presents a unique development opportunity. Prior global copper booms bypassed Argentina – but not this time. Two factors caused this unexpected outcome. The first is the profile of geopolitical competition. During the Cold War (1950-1990), the USSR’s copper production covered its domestic manufacturing needs. Today, both China and the US import copious amounts of copper, fueling geopolitical tensions. In sum, China-US competition for copper differs from the Cold War. The second is the evolution of domestic institutions in Argentina. Perpetual economic crises, persistent high inflation, plus capital controls mask shifts in domestic institutions that slowly encouraged mining investment. Yes, it’s an odd time for Argentina’s “copper moment,” but it is also a revealing case study.