Accepted Paper

From “Donor Darling” to “Donor Crisis”: Unpacking the Political Economy of Global Aid Reduction on Uganda’s Social Sectors  
Ahmed El Assal (ISS, Erasmus University Rotterdam)

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Paper short abstract

Uganda has been celebrated as a successful development model and often described as the ‘donor darling’. However, the reduction in global aid will have negative consequences on its development policy. This paper grapples with the changing aid landscape and its effects on state-society relations.

Paper long abstract

For the last three decades, Uganda has been celebrated by international donors as a successful development model and has been described as the ‘donor darling’. The country’s achievements in meeting various MDGs, as well as its decentralisation process, were seen as steps towards establishing an emerging democracy in Africa. At the time, the neoliberal reforms undertaken by Museveni’s government were in line with the donors’ push for democratic reform, which was promoted as a means of achieving greater citizen participation, more accountable institutions and improved service delivery. However, the ongoing global aid reduction and Trump’s stop-work order have had an immediate negative impact on development policy in Uganda, especially since the US has been the country’s largest international aid donor. Uganda’s heavy reliance on donor financing for social sectors leaves the country vulnerable amid increasing global aid reductions and a shifting aid landscape. According to the latest OECD data, Uganda received approximately $2.44 billion in ODA in 2023. The majority of these funds were grants, with some provided as loans. Against this backdrop, this article addresses two key questions: (1) How does a reduction in global aid affect the provision of social services in Uganda amid an impending debt crisis? Secondly, how does the decline in aid reshape state-society relations and the politics of accountability? Drawing on primary data collected during two rounds of PhD fieldwork in 2023, alongside recent aid statistics from the OECD reporting crediting system and other sources, the article provides an analysis of these questions.

Panel P55
Questions on the future of aid and development