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Paper short abstract

Why do Nigerian youth movements mobilise hundreds of thousands yet fail to achieve change? Comparing #EndSARS (2020) and #EndBadGovernance (2024) reveals how class, regional, and demand fragmentation prevent the formation of durable coalitions to force state concessions.

Paper long abstract

Why do Nigerian youth movements mobilise hundreds of thousands yet fail to achieve policy reforms or regime change? This paper examines #EndSARS (2020) and #EndBadGovernance (2024) to understand why neither protest wave produced meaningful political transformation, in contrast to regime-changing youth movements in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal.

Drawing on Nigerian scholarship on civil society mobilisation, youth politics, and digital activism, I argue that three interconnected fragmentations prevent these movements from building the national coalitions necessary to force state concessions. Class fragmentation separates middle-class digital activists from working-class street protesters. Regional fragmentation reflects deep north-south divisions, with each movement achieving different geographic reach but neither sustaining cross-regional infrastructure. Demand fragmentation intensifies as coalitions broaden—creating a paradox where more inclusive movements produce vaguer demands, making success harder to achieve.

These fragmentations are mutually reinforcing: class position shapes who participates digitally versus physically, which determines regional visibility, which influences demand articulation. Critically, fragmentation weakens movements' capacity to sustain pressure—cross-class coalitions dissolve after initial repression, regional divisions enable the state to isolate protests geographically, and vague demands allow governments to claim partial reforms without meaningful concessions.

Between these protests, the 2023 elections offered an alternative civic pathway that also failed, intensifying disillusionment. Analysing social media discourse, electoral data, and protest documents, I demonstrate how successive failures across both protest and electoral arenas have led to declining youth civic engagement. This Nigerian case challenges celebratory "Gen-Z spring" narratives, revealing structural barriers to building truly national youth movements in large, diverse, postcolonial states.