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Paper short abstract

Farmer–herder conflicts in Nigeria reveal that community-led conflict resolution systems can grow stronger under stress. This study finds that antifragility depends on cultural legitimacy, adaptive learning, and decentralised authority, offering a path beyond top-down solutions.

Paper long abstract

Farmer–herder conflicts in Nigeria have grown markedly more frequent, deadly, and politically charged over the past two decades. While official responses have often faltered due to limited local legitimacy and inflexible structures, community-led conflict resolution instruments (CL-CRIs), have remained central to managing tensions. This article investigates antifragility—a term coined by Taleb (2012) to describe systems that strengthen through exposure to stress.

Drawing on an exploratory design and qualitative secondary sources, including NGO reports, peace committee records, and peer-reviewed research from Plateau, Kaduna, and Ogun States, the study applies a six-part antifragility framework: adaptation through learning, legitimacy through local compliance, innovation and hybridity, institutional durability, social interdependence, and the conversion of shocks into structural strength. Findings reveal that Kaduna demonstrates a relatively advanced antifragile peace architecture, shaped by layered governance, hybrid legitimacy, and embedded procedural learning. Plateau shows partial antifragility, with adaptive rule-making offset by fragile leadership transitions and political interference. Ogun displays early-stage antifragility, especially in its use of digital platforms, market-based interdependence, and swift institutional improvisation during fresh outbreaks of violence.

These Nigerian cases are placed in conversation with global community justice models, including Kenya’s Wajir Peace and Development Committee, Somaliland’s guurti, Rwanda’s gacaca courts, the Bougainville reconciliation process, and Colombia’s community action boards. The analysis identifies three core enablers of antifragility in CL-CRIs: embedded cultural legitimacy, dynamic learning systems, and decentralised authority. The article concludes that long-term resolution of farmer–herder violence will depend less on hierarchical state intervention and more on empowering adaptive, locally rooted peace infrastructures.