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Paper short abstract

Which disaster-risk reforms should Southeast Asian governments do first? Using a 1991–2021 dataset for 11 countries, we rank DRR practices by difficulty and payoff, turning vague guidance into concrete, sequenced priorities.

Paper long abstract

Policymakers in Southeast Asia face a problem: with limited time and resources, which DRR practices should come first, and which later? The region suits sequencing: In this setting, frequent hazards, shared arrangements (ASEAN/AHA Centre), and institutional change enable cross-country, over-time comparison. We assemble a 1991–2021 country–year dataset for eleven countries and place countries and practices on one scale. For each practice—early-warning reach, evacuation drills, incident command, building-code enforcement, timely advisories, local DRR budgeting—we estimate difficulty (capability threshold for likely adoption) and discrimination (how sharply it separates stronger from weaker systems). The core gap is sequencing: under tight budgets and uneven capacity, governments must choose first steps. Guidance says what to do, not in what order, at what capability thresholds adoption is feasible, or where each step yields the most decision-relevant information. Our single scale co-locates practices and countries, surfaces trade-offs, and recasts prioritisation as explicit capability-matching.

Accordingly, sequencing matters: misordered reforms waste capacity, slow risk reduction, and impede regional interoperability. We limit gaps by focusing on widely reported practices and repeat analyses in more- and less-open information environments to test reporting sensitivity. We validate by asking: (1) Do higher-scoring countries look stronger on external indicators of administration and public information not used to build it? (2) When scores rise, do deaths, people affected, and EM-DAT losses fall the next year—controlling for hazard exposure, development, common shocks, and persistence? The result is a sequencing tool that specifies what to prioritise, offering comparably scaled, decision-oriented guidance for governments, ASEAN bodies, and partners.