Send message to Contributor

Contribution short abstract:

The article examines the potential of non-state armed groups for disaster risk reduction, with a focus on the Arakan Army's disaster response during Cyclone Mocha as a case study.

Contribution long abstract:

Disasters, which are increasingly frequent and deadly, often occur in conflict-affected countries, where the risks of both crises are compounded. This article explores the relationship between climate-related disasters and armed conflict, focusing on the role of non-state armed groups (NSAGs) in disaster response. The theoretical framework draws on rebel governance, considering disaster response as a form of governance, and posits that the effectiveness and inclusiveness of NSAG responses can influence post-disaster conflict dynamics. Using qualitative methods, namely interviews and process tracing, the case study examines the Arakan Army, a controversial rebel group in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, and its response to Cyclone Mocha in 2023. The findings suggest that the Arakan Army’s consolidation of territorial control and popular support played a critical role in its disaster response efforts, including evacuation, relief distribution, and recovery. Local ethnic Arakan communities welcomed these efforts, enhancing the group’s legitimacy and weakening the central state authority under the junta regime. The inclusiveness of the Arakan Army’s response appears mixed: while the group neither actively assisted nor strictly excluded the Rohingya population in its territory, its approach was shaped by the strategic belief that a multi-ethnic vision was necessary for its political project. Meanwhile, the Rohingya community hesitated to engage due to past violence, abuse, and ongoing fears. Furthermore, international engagement with the Arakan Army’s humanitarian efforts was limited, illustrating how disaster diplomacy with NSAGs is often contingent on their human rights records.