Paper short abstract:

Kerala has prominent out-migration, with a total of 94% emigrating to the Gulf countries as their first place of destination, and this has repercussions for Kerala’s own labour force. This study explores factors influencing these migrants' length of stay abroad by using the survival analysis model.

Paper long abstract:

The Indian state of Kerala’s out-migration has repercussions for Kerala’s own labour force. Among the total over 96% of the Keralites migrated first time to abroad, where more than 94% of them emigrated to the Gulf countries as their first place of destination, and the length of stay varies considerably for the head of the household from short-term migration duration (38%) to a longer stay 15 or more years (79%) compared to other categories like husband/wife, married/unmarried children or other relatives of the head. Return emigrants are a demographically, politically, and economically significant segment of the Kerala population, so this study aims to explore factors influencing the length of stay abroad of these migrants. We examine the 2035 return migrants in the Kerala Migration Survey (KMS) data of 2018. The method used is survival analysis- Weibull proportional hazards (PH) regression model. Migrants between 30 to 59 years of age had stayed longer than other age groups. The longer stays in the Gulf countries were significantly associated with large family size, being married, higher wealth, and personal education level. Compared to married, unmarried children spent significantly less time abroad. The ramifications of the long stays among the married people are that the unmarried children return to the Kerala labour market with language skills and education based on the Gulf systems.

Keywords: International Migration, Duration Analysis, Gulf Migration, Survival Analysis, Kerala Migration Survey (KMS)