Paper short abstract:

Conflict may promote the food insecurity status of households through its negative impact on food price shocks. The burden of economic shocks particularly conflict-induced food price spikes falls heavily on already vulnerable populations who spend over 70% of their income on food.

Paper long abstract:

Using general household panel data, monthly retailed commodity prices, and violent conflict data from 2010 to 2019, this study examines the linkages between conflict, food price shocks, and food security outcomes of households in Nigeria. Per capita daily calorie intake, household dietary diversity, and per capita monthly food consumption were the three food security outcomes used for this study. Fixed effects panel regression model was used to analyze the data. Dietary diversity appeared higher in the first wave than in the other three. The dietary diversity measure for the post-harvests was slightly higher than the post-plantings. The high dietary diversity associated with the post-harvest periods is partly related to the relatively higher net value of foods consumed during the same season. This is because the amount of food calories consumed during the post-harvest periods is relatively lower than that consumed during the post-planting periods. Regardless of the conflict level in Nigeria, an increase in conflict-induced price shock of wheat, and rice is associated with a decline in calorie intake, dietary diversity, and the actual food value consumed. The conflict-induced price shocks of other cereals negatively influence the actual food value consumed, and dietary diversity. It is concluded that violent conflict influences some aspects of food insecurity, through adjustment in diets in response to price increases. Therefore, policy issues aimed at improving the food security outcomes of households in the face of conflict-induced price shocks should focus on price schemes that will stabilize prices placing a price floor on food commodities.