Paper short abstract:

This paper draws on a longitudinal study in Egypt articulating voices of deprived communities pre- and post- 2011 uprising. The aim is to critically examine the impact of the uprisings on people's wellbeing and aspirations and to explain why they settled for a new authoritarian social contract.

Paper long abstract:

Egypt's return to authoritarian rule under Sisi is a clear case of ‘democratic backsliding’. Despite growing public dissent and deepening economic crises (40% inflation in Aug 2023), this dissent is no longer translated into protests. This is due to: First, the heavy-handed nature of Sisi’s authoritarian regime which succeeded in controlling political and digital spaces for popular contestation. Second, despite their suffering, people are reluctant to protest as they settled for a new authoritarian social contract trading off their socio-economic and civil rights for political stability. The sustainability of such a social contract, however, is highly questionable leading to long-term political instability.

Drawing on an longitudinal study (2006 until 2018) in rural villages in Menia and Manshiet Nasser, the study tracks the same individuals through a wellbeing questionnaire to identify the changes in their wellbeing priorities, aspirations, and problems over time and to examine their perceived impact of the uprisings on their wellbeing. The study reveals that people are reluctant to engage in popular contestation as they tend to blame the uprisings and their resulting political instability – rather than the regime's policies - for their economic suffering! The regime's 'New Republic' rhetoric has thus propagated a new social contract that forgoes socio-economic and political rights for political stability. Why and how are people settling for this new authoritarian social contract and for how long – are the key questions that this paper addresses. Drawing on people’s voices and their perspectives from below, the paper seeks to answer those questions.