Paper short abstract:

This paper empirically analyzes Chinese COVID-19 vaccines in the Global South. It shows that states with stronger existing political ties with China were more likely to turn to China for vaccine aid/donations during the crisis, but that commercial vaccine sales were driven by economic motives.

Paper long abstract:

The COVID-19 global vaccine distribution brought into sharp relief the inequalities inherent in the political economy of crucial commodities in a time of crisis. This paper asks why some countries turned to China as a source of vaccine doses during the first six months of the global vaccine rollout, while others did not. It theorizes that in the context of extreme uncertainty, threat, and time pressure, bounded rationality causes policymakers to turn to familiar sources for support. Using original data on Chinese vaccine doses delivered up to June 30 2021, and controlling for national interest and gravity variables, the paper finds robust statistical evidence that countries with stronger pre-pandemic “ties of support” with China (measured by receipt of Chinese medical teams and borrowing from China) were more likely to turn to China for vaccine donations. Commercial exports, on the other hand, are better explained by the standard gravity model of trade. The findings suggest that more attention is needed on the “demand side” of foreign aid, in particular in the unique circumstances of a widespread crisis.