Paper short abstract:

Investigating Mongolia's Child Money Program, this paper finds a significant reduction in mothers' working hours, especially for those under 35 or with young children. No notable impact on fathers' labor outcomes is found. Policymakers should tailor CMP design for diverse maternal ages.

Paper long abstract:

This study examines the impact of the Child Money Program (CMP) on labor market outcomes in Mongolia, specifically focusing on fathers' and mothers’ labor participation, employment, and working hours per week. A Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design is used to assess the causal impact of the CMP, integrating three sources of nationally representative datasets. The CMP, a conditional cash transfer program, targets households with welfare scores below specific cutoff points and covers 76.8% of children in total, accounting for 0.7% of GDP in 2018. The findings reveal that the CMP significantly reduces mothers' weekly working hours, but it does not have a significant effect on labor force participation and employment status compared to non-beneficiary mothers. However, heterogeneity analysis highlights that the CMP significantly reduces labor force participation and employment status for mothers below 35 years of age or mothers with only preschool or secondary school-aged children. Among fathers, there is no impact on their labor outcomes. The study suggests that the CMP primarily negatively impacts mothers, while no conclusive evidence supports a significant impact on fathers' employment. Policymakers should carefully consider the CMP's design and implementation, especially in different age groups of mothers and children.