Paper short abstract:

The presentation highlights the processes and outcome of building scenarios for socio-economic greening recovery in Ghana post-COVID19. It unpacks the constituents of two disparate alternative pathways [Leapfrog and Blended] that were arrived at through stakeholder consultative processes.

Paper long abstract:

Scenarios building processes provide the basis to prepare for unanticipated consequences and to identify strategic options that can enhance the outcomes of an existing situation. Being a process, scenarios building necessitates the consultation of varied stakeholders with broad-based knowledge and expertise apropos of the phenomenon at the core of the discussion. The process, therefore, provides a framework for the development of consensuses and sometimes divergence around core pathways. This paper employed a stakeholder participatory approach (two multi-stakeholder workshops) to deconstruct the alternative scenarios for COVID19 greening recovery of Ghana, following the conduction of a policy analysis and semi-structured interviews with experts. Through this participatory process, two alternative scenarios - 'Leapfrog' and 'Blended' - emerged. In the 'Leapfrog' scenario, a clear commitment to moving away from fossil fuels and decarbonising the economy rapidly is required. In order to avoid this leading to donor dependency, all international partnerships, whether involving financial or in-kind transfers, are carefully assessed to ensure they contribute in the long-term to internal wealth and job creation. Thus, the green economy paradigm becomes a key economic driver. On the other hand, the 'Blended' scenario advocates the concurrent investment in fossil fuel industries and renewable fuel sources in the short to medium term, while using resource taxes to generate funds for public investment in crucial social services. Thus, the pace of greening recovery under the 'Blended' scenario is slower compared with the 'Leapfrog' scenario.