Paper short abstract:

This study investigated if fossil fuel-related popular protests in Nigeria yield accountability and empowerment outcomes, and the conditions under which that happens. We found protests to yield little for citizens; opening up the civic space for dialogue may produce better outcomes than protests.

Paper long abstract:

There is little evidence on whether and how popular protests and actions contribute to citizens’ empowerment and whether these enables citizens to hold states to account in fragile and conflict-affected settings. This study investigated if fossil fuel-related popular protests in Nigeria yield accountability and empowerment outcomes, and the conditions under which that happens. Nigeria is the largest producer of crude oil in Africa, and the sixth in the world. Yet it has been the site with many recurrent fossil fuel-related struggles. While some of these struggles led to change in government policy – a sign of accountability and empowerment --, others did not seem to have been noticed by the government at all.

The study adopted a mixed-method design, combining qualitative and secondary data. We conducted key-informant interviews with leaders of fuel protests, media personalities and government officials in the petroleum sector in Abuja and Lagos. We also conducted focus group discussions with citizens in different locations in Lagos State. We complemented these data sources with an events catalogue which reviewed newspaper reports on energy protests in Nigeria from 2007 to 2016.

Our findings suggest that accountability and empowerment outcomes of the struggles over energy access in fragile and conflict-affected settings are severely limited by the very conditions that define the state as fragile: weak institutions, elite capture, widespread corruption, and a citizenry that is protest-fatigued and disempowered. Frameworks that open up the civic space for dialogues between government and the citizens may produce better outcomes than protests.