Paper short abstract:

The paper takes Chinese land-based agricultural investments in Zambia as case study and explores patterns of Chinese investment in agriculture vary across time, subnational space, and forms in Zambia. It argues land governance and politics in Zambia has strongly influenced the investment decisions.

Paper long abstract:

This paper takes Chinese land-based agricultural investments in Zambia as case study and explores the answers to why patterns of Chinese investment in agriculture vary across time, subnational space, and forms in Zambia. Focusing on the timing and locations of Chinese land investment, the analysis shows that the motives of Chinese investors in themselves do not account for the full story of when or where they will invest. It is the structural conditions and institutional setup of land governance in Zambia that has strongly influenced the investment decisions. By analyzing the forms of investment, the chapter shows how the investment outcome varies along the line of political salient factors. When the regimes of land rights have unified state control, the investment outcome depends on the freedom of land market regulated by the state. The investment decision follows the market regulatory rules. Whereas in the situations that competing authorities are consolidating each side’s power grip, it opens a unique space for developmental projects on the one hand, and zombie project due to controversial power struggles between central and peripheral on the other hand. The analysis demonstrates, with variance in institutional and political character, different regimes have strong influence on foreign investors and their potential investment decisions. It shows the fallacies of studies that downplay the African land laws and formal state institutions, and their roles in regulating investors and shaping potential investment decisions.