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Accepted Paper:
Institutions, political settlements and the analysis of conflicts
Mushtaq Khan
(SOAS, University of London)
Paper short abstract:
The political settlements approach provides important insights into the drivers of stability and conflict in developing countries. The policy implications are at variance with the security, justice and jobs suggested by mainstream institutional and governance analyses of security and development.
Paper long abstract:
Developing countries are vulnerable to outbreaks of violence. Any analysis of violence and insecurity in specific cases has to be consistent with an analysis of the political and economic dynamics of 'normal' developing countries. However, many of the dominant ideas that inform the international policy debate on conflict and security are based on an ahistorical analysis of how a social order is constructed in developing countries. The policy prescriptions that emanate from mainstream approaches support policies promoting 'good governance', investments in security and in employment generation (as in the WDR 2011). The political settlements approach in this paper suggests that the legitimacy and stability of the state in developing countries depend on providing enough for the economic and political expectations of the general population subject to the important constraint of providing significant informal rents to critical organizers and constituencies which define the ruling coalition and a sustainable strategy for dealing with powerful organizations outside the coalition. Political settlements defined in this way are vulnerable and can be suddenly upset by factors which disrupt the equilibrium. For instance changes in the perceived bargaining power of groups can result in more intense conflicts to change the distribution of benefits. When this happens, conflict can escalate and the reproducibility of the system can be threatened. In extreme cases, the ruling coalition can break down and conflict and violence can spiral to a high level till a new political settlement emerges. This approach suggests different causes and therefore plausible responses to emerging conflicts.
Political settlements and prospects for institutional transformation: re-thinking state- and peace-building in situations of fragility
Session 1